August, 2010

Reading the newspaper, everything seems to be about to change. We're at the beginning of historically significant times. Big changes are coming and they may seem gradual to those who experience them, but they seem like they will be major events. It seems an interesting time to be out of the country for any extended amount of time. I predict right now that a lot of things are going to be different in two years when I get back. So much so that it's going to be a shock.

I don't think I would really shock anyone to predict that there will be economic hard times, harder then we're seeing right now, and that that will effect everything from what people do and do not buy and drive, to the kinds of jobs people have, to where people live. I'm not talking science fiction here, just based on the closing of the Janesville GM plant yesterday and other similar moves in the industry, the price of gas and the fact that the minimum wage is out of line with the cost of essential everyday items means that I can make a few predictions.

The most obvious is that transportation is going to get an overhaul. We're already seeing this with more people taking advantage of public transportation where it's available because they can't afford gas. This also means that cities, counties and even states will start to see the economic upside of funding and maintaining and in some cases building or expanding more reliable public transportation.

Second, people will rethink where they live. Most likely this means more urban living. People who are moving to find work because the limited number of manufacturing jobs that we have left are shrinking will start to opt to live closer to the essentials, work, school, grocery store etc. because they can't afford gas. Being able to walk or get public transportation to get to where you need to go is going to become a big factor in buying a new home.

Finally, new industries will be created. So many people in this country work in service industries right now, but when fewer people buy, these are the people who may lose there jobs and then they aren't receiving paychecks and buying goods and it's a terrible cycle. I'm a pessimist and since my limited knowledge of economics means that I view the economy as circular, it's hard to see how this ends well. But I'm not writing sci-fi so I'll stop short of predicting a total economic collapse and a post-apocalyptic future where everyone has computers, but uses horses and farms their own little plot of land.

I know that things will seem gradual to people experiencing them first hand. We've already had many changes over the last five years, but they seem to be a normal progression. But the one prediction I'm almost 100% sure of is that things will seem very different after two years of being away.